Before we dive into the potential of Bitcoin price 2024, let’s have a look at how Bitcoin performed in 2023. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) showcased remarkable resilience through the past year, marking a staggering 156.3% gain in 2023. Following a challenging 64.4% depreciation in 2022, Bitcoin’s resurgence was notable, supported by an 11.3% surge in December and a substantial 57.5% expansion in the fourth quarter. 

This resurgence solidified Bitcoin’s position, with the cryptocurrency orbiting the $42,230 level, representing a significant 50% retracement of its previous declining range.

Key indicators and upside potential of Bitcoin price 2024

The recent rise of BTC to the $45,000 figure tested the $45,278.22 level, signaling a promising upside to the historical highs around the $38,580 area as we saw in 2021.

Anticipating further upward movement, the potential upside targets loom at $46,105, $46,487, and $49,161 levels, which might prompt further upward momentum and trigger Stops beyond those points.

What are some of the downward risks involved?

Despite the positive trends, Bitcoin isn’t immune to downside risks. If Bitcoin prices drop below the current levels, investors should be cautious since we might see drops to around $40,185 and $38,773 areas. 

The recent selling pressure around $43,657 and $43,207 levels also introduced an additional downside outlook to targets like $42,358, $42,052, and $41,556 levels. If this happens then the technical support zones around $38,998, $38,028, $37,321, and $35,285 levels, might serve as potential buying opportunities.

Technical analysis and market projections of Bitcoin price 2024

A closer look at the technicals reveals bullish indicators, with the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) signaling above the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs. 

Conversely, the 50-bar MA (hourly) suggests a bearish trend below the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs. The current price resides near the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) at $42,940.59 and the 100-bar MA (Hourly) at $42,578.27, indicating a zone of equilibrium.

Bitcoin Price 2024

Image source: Centralcharts

What factors will be influencing Bitcoin price 2024

Looking ahead into 2024, various factors could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. The awaited decision on the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications by the United States regulator holds a lot of promise. Expectations surrounding the ETF approval have influenced market sentiment, with options data indicating market anticipation.

While the potential approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could trigger a short-term influx of over $100 million into the market, experts caution against overestimating its immediate impact. 

Views from analysts, including VanEck’s Director of Digital Assets Strategy Gabor Gurbacs and Bloomberg’s James Seyffart, suggest that while short-term inflows are expected, the true impact of the ETF launch might be more significant in the long run.

You might also like: What is a Bitcoin ETF, and why do we need it?

On-chain metrics and market behavior

Despite on-chain metrics indicating profit-taking and rising Bitcoin supply on exchanges, BTC has maintained its position above $42,000. 

Bitcoin supply on exchanges

Large spikes in the Network Realized Profit/Loss chart and increased Bitcoin reserves on exchanges between December and January have fueled speculation amidst the anticipation of the Spot BTC ETF approval.

Network Realized Profit/Loss chart

Price projection and potential scenarios of Bitcoin price 2024

In the near term, Bitcoin aims for a breakout above the $43,200 resistance zone, eyeing gains toward $44,700 and potentially even $46,200 if bullish momentum sustains. 

Conversely, failure to breach the resistance could lead to a downward correction, finding support near $41,620 and potentially testing the $40,500 level.

Bitcoin price 2024 prediction

Image source: Cointelegraph BTC/USDT chart

Final thought

Bitcoin’s journey through 2023’s impressive gains and the outlook for 2024 hinges on numerous factors, including regulatory decisions, market sentiment, technical indicators, and the much-awaited BTC halving happening on April 2024. 

While short-term fluctuations may occur, the overall trajectory suggests continued investor interest and potential for bullish momentum in 2024. We may see Bitcoin hit $60,000 or up to $500,000 after the halving, as some experts predict.