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The path to approving a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States is clearing up after recent developments that have injected fresh hope into the cryptocurrency industry. 

With major players like BlackRock and Fidelity submitting new ETF applications, spot bitcoin ETF approval gains momentum following Grayscale’s legal triumph and market surge.

Such an approval could mark a significant turning point for Bitcoin, opening doors to broader institutional investment and mainstream participation.

Grayscale Victory and Improved Odds

The recent legal win by Grayscale against the SEC has added fuel to the proponents of a spot Bitcoin ETF. The court’s ruling, which ordered the SEC to reevaluate its rejection of Grayscale’s application to transform its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF, has not only bolstered Grayscale’s prospects but also infused confidence in the likelihood of future Bitcoin ETF approvals. 

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have upgraded their approval odds from 65% to 75% this year, with an even more bullish estimate of 95% by 2024.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval: A Game Changer for the Industry

Unlike Bitcoin futures ETFs, which track derivative contracts, a spot Bitcoin ETF directly invests in the actual cryptocurrency. This distinction holds immense significance, as it could draw billions of dollars in new investments into the crypto space. 

The SEC’s traditional concerns regarding fraud and market manipulation have been met with potential solutions, such as surveillance-sharing agreements with reputable exchanges, like Coinbase, to detect and prevent misconduct. This progress in market transparency addresses a key obstacle in the path to approval.

Impact on Bitcoin’s Value and Adoption

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The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would likely positively impact the cryptocurrency’s value. By providing easy and regulated access to Bitcoin, institutional and retail investors alike could flock to the market. 

This increased demand could further solidify Bitcoin’s position as a viable value and digital currency store. Moreover, with mainstream investment vehicles gaining acceptance, financial advisors and brokers may more readily allocate client assets to regulated crypto investments, catalyzing adoption.

SEC’s Next Moves and Timelines

Despite these promising signs, the SEC still can delay or reject further applications. While momentum favors ETF approval, the regulatory landscape remains unpredictable. 


Following the court ruling, the SEC has 45 days to request an en banc hearing, which could lead to a different outcome. Analysts anticipate at least one spot Bitcoin ETF to gain approval by 2023, but the SEC might drag this into 2024. However, the timing remains to be determined due to the regulatory complexities involved.

Spot ETFs: A Bridge to Broader Crypto Adoption

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs could serve as a gateway to mainstream crypto adoption. Once the floodgates open, other digital asset funds focused on areas like Ethereum and decentralized finance (DeFi) will likely gain traction. 

Financial advisors armed with regulated crypto investment options may become more comfortable allocating their clients’ funds to the burgeoning crypto market. This domino effect could lead to the growth of a compliant crypto fund ecosystem, gradually expanding the horizons of crypto investing.

What should cryptocurrency investors expect?

As the crypto industry witnesses a series of positive developments, the prospect of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the US becomes more tangible. With major institutions stepping up their applications and a legal win for Grayscale, the SEC’s resistance may finally give way. 

The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could reshape the landscape of cryptocurrency investment, drawing in institutional interest and accelerating mainstream adoption. While challenges and uncertainties persist, the industry is poised for a transformative shift that could redefine the future of crypto investing.